Excessive Rainfall Outlook — Five Days of Flash Flood Risk

Flash floods are hard to forecast because they depend on rain falling faster than the ground can take it, not just on total rainfall. This outlook handles that directly: forecasters estimate the probability that rain will exceed local flash flood thresholds within about twenty-five miles of any point, and publish it as a shaded map for each of the next five days. Marginal, slight, moderate and high risk areas are updated daily. For a family or a monitor, this is the product that turns a vague forecast of heavy rain into a usable question — is my area shaded today, and is the shading getting darker as the event approaches.

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